قياس الأثر المتبادل لتقلبات سعر الصرف و سعر النفط في الاقتصاد العراقي للسنوات (1990-2015)‎ باستخدام طريقة التكامل المشترك

الملخص EN

Measurement of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations in the Iraqi economy for the years 1990 - 2015 using cointegration methodDr.

Wedad Adwar Wadi Collage of Administration and Economics University of Basrah The economic transactions with the outside world needs foreign exchange to facilitate the trade process, therefore the exchange rate take important place in the policy makers in the advanced and developing countries because it is alike tool linking prices of goods in the domestic market and foreign market prices and that any fluctuations in the exchange rate have different effects on macroeconomic variables in general and particularly on oil exports, Iraq as on oil country depends on oil imports based on economic policy and economic development, which view the Iraqi economy to many economic crises because of the frequent and unexpected drop in oil prices which requires economic and monetary reforms in order to promote the Iraqi economy.

This study shows the reciprocal influence of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi oil revenues and then on imports of goods and services using the cointegration method and show there is a long term one- way casual relation for the oil price upon the exchange rate.