التطور المالي و تأثيره في النمو الاقتصادي في العراق

الملخص EN

The aim of the research is to measure the impact of financial development on economic The aim of the research is to measure the impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq using the annual time series for the period 2004-2018 for a number of monetary and financial variables (money supply in the broad sense / GDP, capital accumulation rate / GDP and the ratio of credit granted to the private sector / GDP) expressing the development in the financial sector in Iraq, and this period was chosen in line with the relatively high rates of economic growth witnessed in Iraq, and the study used descriptive and quantitative approaches in order to build an appropriate standard model to measure the impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq, and the method of time series analysis was used.

The results showed that the economic variables contain the unit root, and the variables become stable after the first differences, and this was followed by subjecting the variables to the joint integration test by the Johansson method, which proved the existence of four vectors for the joint integration between the research variables, and the results of the joint integration showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables The subject of the research, as the causation test of granger concluded that there is a unilateral trend of causation from the financial variables to the variable of economic growth, and the research found the existence of an effect of each of (broad-sense money supply / GDP, and the ratio of credit granted to the private sector / GDP) on economic growth in Iraq, while the rate of capital accumulation / GDP was not statistically significant.

In light of the previous results, the research recommends the following : The necessity of directing domestic credit to productive investments by paying attention to the rate of capital accumulation that is directed to local investments and attracting foreign investments by providing a safe and stable legislative environment that helps financial liberalization for the purpose of increasing economic growth rates in Iraq.