تقييم نموذج التنبؤ بالتعثر المالى في قطاع نقل البضائع بالسيارات في مصر

الملخص EN

This research aims to assess the predictive ability of proposed model in a previous research to predict the financial distress of the cargo transport sector in Egypt.

To accomplish this, both the future financial position (forecasted by the previous research) and the current financial position in this research was studied, then a comparison had done to determine the degree of congruence or non-congruence between them, and then test the accuracy and ability of proposed model to predict financial distress.

The research concluded that despite the previous research forecast that the financial distress improved and reached the safety stage due as the result of support provided by Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport to modernize the fleet and reduce the debt burden of the companies of this sector, with confirming that the credibility of these results depends on relative stability in the surrounding environment.

But current research concluded that a deterioration in the financial position for the same period (predicted) and reached to bankruptcy stage despite continues support from the Holding Company.

That's mean there is non-congruence between the current and forecast financial positions, and this non-congruence was not due to weakness of predictive ability of the proposed model, but rather to changing the environment surrounding this sector, the most important which is the increasing in the wage rate which ranged from 122% to 153% of current activity revenues during the research period, In addition to increasing the rest cost of production inputs.

After assessing the predictive ability of the proposed model again, the future financial situation of cargo sector in Egypt has been estimated by 2030, which predicts that the sector will reach to bankruptcy stage, and then appropriate recommendations were proposed