استخدام مقاربة الخيارات الحقيقية لتقييم مشاريع الاستكاف و الإنتاج البترولي

Abstract EN

The study has examined the real options approach “ROA” as an effective and important tool in the evaluation of petroleum exploration and production projects “E&P” in order to assess the managerial flexibility that can be integrated to the investment decision making process.

Accordingly, we have evaluated switch on/off option, continue/abandon option and compound option, therefore we have started with the estimation of the Original Oil in Place “OOIP” which is a necessary step to forecast the production profile, secondly, we have used the Geometric Brownian Motion” GBM” to model oil prices & variable operation costs, the capital costs are considered as a triangular distribution function.

The results show that the use of real options for assessing E&P projects not only add significant value to the project, due to the non-negativity that characterizes the ROA but also reduces the E&P project risk degree.