قياس و تحليل صدمة المديونية الخارجية و أثرها على بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في العراق للمدة (1990-2017)‎ باستخدام إنموذج متجه الانحدار الذاتي (VAR)‎

Abstract EN

This research provides practical and realistic treatments to treat the shock of external debt and its impact on some of the macroeconomic variables represented by (Gross Domestic Product, Wide Money Supply, and Public Expenditure) in the Iraqi economy for the period (1990-2017) the research has objectively discussed the structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy that were caused by the distortion of the output structure gross domestic product that relies heavily on unstable oil revenues and weak exotic options that make public expenditure a variable bound by limited sources and therefore heavily dependent on borrowing from abroad, In addition to the influence of the wide money supply variable on the part of foreign reserves, of which the external debt contributes in a large part.

The results of the analytical side confirmed that the external debt shock is one of the most important shocks influenced by the macroeconomic variables and that these variables are negatively and positively affected by the shock of the external debt, And that the GDP variable goes along with the economic cycles along the length of the study while the two economic policy variables are unique (Public Expenditure and Wide Money Supply) with two tracks, One of them does not match the economic courses specifically for the period (1990-2002) and the other tracks the economic courses for the period (2003-2017).

While the results of the Econometric side showed that the pulse response functions of the external debt shock model lead to the occurrence of a shock by one standard deviation that reflects a negative response that results in a decrease in the Gross Domestic Product and a positive response that raises the Wide Money Supply as a result of the expansionary policy and a negative response that reduces the impact of Public Expenditure.