التغير في فاعلية السياسة النقدية الحالة المصرية : مدخل جديد

Abstract EN

This paper tests the effectiveness of monetary policy in Egypt, measured by the changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to changes in Money supply M, ∂GDP/∂M and the changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI) ) due to changes in M, ∂CPI/∂M, for the period between (2001: q3 to 2017: q2).

Omitting important variables from traditional statistical methods ruins all estimates and statistics.

This paper uses a relatively new statistical method (Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (RTPLS)) that solves the omitted variables problem and produces a separate unbiased slope for every observation.

The results show that the effectiveness of monetary policy, measured by, ∂GDP/∂M and, ∂CPI/∂M, has fallen between 2001: q3 and 2017: q2 by 53% , 48 respectively.

The results confirm that monetary policy in Egypt is suffering from the ent or weak of the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, Egyptian economy is not yet ready for the implementation of an inflation targeting regime and the glut of savings.

The solution to these problems are establishment of better coordination between both policies, review the inflation targeting regime and redistribution of income from savers to consumers which will increase the marginal propensity to consume, increase aggregate demand, and increase the effectiveness of monetary policy.