آثار تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار الجزائري على الميزان التجاري : مقاربة الانحدار الذاتي للمتباطئات الزمنية الموزعة ARDL في الفترة (1990-2014)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and balance of payments by selecting various theoretical mechanism of exchange rate and balance of payments components in addition to address the interactive relationship between them , this is based on the econometric method through the use of bounds test of cointegration and error correction model (ECM) based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL).

The objective is to verify a long term relationship between all variables of the study (the trade balance , exchange rate and the price of oil) in Algeria during the period(1990- 2014).

The applied results indicated a relationship between balance of trade deficit and oil price due to the nature of the Algerian economy, but this relationship was weak with respect to the exchange rate , which applies also to study causality tests where results showed that this relationship exists between trade balance and price of oil but is virtually non-existent in terms of exchange rate.