قياس أثر الانفاق الحكومي في عرض النقد في العراق للمدة (1990-2019)‎

Abstract EN

The study highlights the measurement and analysis of dynamic interactions (short and long-term) between government spending as an independent variable and money supply as a dependent variable using the ARDL model.

The study assumed that there is a direct, statistically significant relationship between government spending and money supply.

For this, a standard model was used for the study.

In addition, annual data covering the period (1990-2020) was used.

Finally, the results of the ARDL model test revealed to us that there is a co-integration and a long-term equilibrium relationship between government spending and money supply.

As for the causality of Toda-Yamamoto, it showed the existence of a causal relationship extending from government spending to money supply, and therefore the results of the model proved the validity of the study hypothesis.

Accordingly, the study recommended the need to re-engineer government spending, especially current ones, and to activate the non-oil economic sectors in order to mitigate the effects that government expenditures have on the money supply.

On the money supply in a way that achieves monetary balance in Iraq.