استشراف المستقبل : أساليب التنبؤ بالمستقبل في التفاعلات الدولية : السيناريو نموذجا

Abstract EN

The subject of future foresight is one of the difficult and important files in strategic studies, where the foresight process is carried out according to precise and specific methods and techniques, chosen by the researcher according to the nature of the phenomenon under study and the available research capabilities, and the technical scenario is the most employed in the field of future studies.

it is easier for researchers because it is-unlike all other techniques-the simplest and most comprehensive to analyze the phenomenon through all possible possibilities, as the scenario also presents a process of fragmentation and dismantling of the phenomenon under study into simpler components, which facilitates the identification of the history of the phenomenon and the detection of the nature of the mutual effects of this history and the set of forces that shaped it.