دراسة اقتصادية لأثر الأزمة العالمية على إنتاج وواردات القمح في مصر

Abstract EN

Advancing the production of strategic crops, especially wheat, is a major goal to meet the increase in local demand for it, as it is one of the crops that aims to achieve food security, as it is the main food for most Egyptians as it is a major source of energy because it contains a large proportion of carbohydrates.

The research problem is that despite the increase in The production of the wheat crop in recent years, but this increase is not commensurate with the growing population needs, which led to an increase in the value of imports from it, in light of the rise in the price of the dollar against the pound, in addition to the doubling of its import bill from previous periods, especially in light of the repercussions of Covid-19 and its aftermath, coinciding with the Russian-Ukrainian war, which greatly affected the shape, size and nature of food supplies in the world, especially since these two countries represent the largest part of the food basket for grain crops, which was It has a negative impact on the economies of the countries of the world, which in turn led to the occurrence of successive inflationary waves in its prices, and the ensuing effects on all other sectors, which constitutes a great burden on the countries that import large quantities of it, including Egypt.

The research reached a set of results, the most important of which are the following:
1- The productivity indicators during the period (2007/2008-2019/2020) show that the average cultivated area of the wheat crop in Egypt amounted to about 3.14 million feddans, while the average production of the wheat crop was about 8.56 million tons, while the average feddan productivity of the wheat crop About 2.73 tons.

2- It was found from the economic indicators during the period (2007/2008-2019/2020) that the average agricultural price of the wheat crop amounted to about EGP 2, 660.9 / ton.

The average total feddan costs amounted to about 5770.62 pounds, while the average gross acres yield was about 9127.23 pounds, while the average net feddan yield amounted to about 3602.69 pounds.

While the average return on the invested pound was about 0.77.

3- The average wheat consumption amounted to about 17, 773 thousand tons, and the average size of the food gap was estimated at about 9217.62 thousand tons.

It was also found that the average self-sufficiency rate amounted to about 48.40% , while the average period of meeting the local production of wheat consumption was about 5.85 months.

While the average quantity of imports is about 9.25 million tons, and the average value of wheat imports is about 2, 654.07 million pounds.

4- By studying the current situation and the future vision of the most important strategic crops in the light of the 2030 strategic vision during the average period (2018-2020), it was found that the area targeted to be achieved according to the 2030 strategy is about 4200 thousand feddans and that the percentage achieved so far has reached about 72.9% , and productivity was estimated The target according to the 2030 strategy is about 3.6 tons / feddan, and the achieved percentage has reached about 76.39% , and the target production

according to the 2030 strategy vision is estimated at about 15, 120 thousand tons, with an achievement rate of about 55.8% , while the target quantity of wheat according to the 2030 vision is estimated to reach about 18.71 million tons, with a targeted decrease of about 11.3% , while the target of self-sufficiency of wheat, according to Vision 2030, was estimated at 80.8% .

5- By estimating the areas required to be cultivated to cover imports of the wheat crop, the amount of wheat imports reached about 12.55 million tons, while the area required to be cultivated of wheat to cover imports from it was estimated to be about 4566.7 thousand feddans, representing about 149.1% of the current area, which represents about 1.5 times the cultivated area during Average study period.

6- It was found from the rural survey that was conducted on some of the sample farmers in Beheira governorate that there is a clear deficiency in the inventory process related to the areas and related to agricultural associations, in addition to the presence of leaks that occur on the side of wheat production, especially with regard to the use of wheat as food for animals as a cheap alternative to the composition of feed to benefit From the price differences that exceed the prices announced by the government in the case of supply, the state should review wheat supply prices in the coming years in order to encourage farmers to plant the largest areas allocated for wheat and sell their production and supply it to the Ministry of Supply, taking into account the current international prices of wheat when Pricing, and working to provide a cheap alternative to livestock feed.