أثر المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على سعر الصرف الدينار الجزائري خلال الفترة 1970-2019 باستخدام نموذج ARDL

Abstract EN

Through this research paper, we identified the most important economic variables that determine the exchange rate in Algeria during the period 1970-2019, in view of the theories that explain the exchange rate in Algeria and based on the data of the world bank, and using the autoregressive model of the slowed time gaps ARDL, in order to test the model the exchange rate consisting of the following economic variables : interest rate, oil price, monetary mass, trade openness, inflation, foreign exchange reserves, gross domestic product the study concluded that all variables are stable of the first degree except for the rate of GDP, and that all variables explain the exchange rate in the long term except for inflation, exchange reserve, and GDP.

in the short term, these three variables are added to the monetary mass that in the short term, they do not affect the real exchange rate, and the results of the residual series stability test showed that there is consistency in the model between long-term and short-term results, and a co-integration relationship between the variables under study.