تحليل اقتصادي لاستجابة عرض محصول الشلب في محافظة النجف للمدة 1985-2006

الملخص EN

The main objective of this study was to estimate supply response of planted acreage for paddy , during the period 1985 -2006 .

This function is estimated as a conditional supply function , because its dependence on the limited factor ( irrigation water ) .

To get this estimate , the producer was considered as avenue maximizer instead of profit maximizer in order to determine the optimal allocation of water between its alternative usages .

The results indicated that the major determinants of planted acreage are :the index number of lagged prices of the crop , lagged planted acreage, and irrigation water .These variables account for 74% of total variation in the planted acreage of paddy .

The estimated elasticities indicated that water elasticities of planted acreage were higher than own and cross-price as it were 0.4203 .That means a 10% increase in irrigation water in Eupharate river causes a 4.2% increase in the planted acreage for paddy.

The own elasticity for paddy crop with respect to its relative price was 0.355.That means a 10% increase in relative price of paddy results in 3.6% increase in planted acreage in short-term and 5.8% in long term.

That may offset the importance of irrigation water in determination of planted acreage and in limitation of its responsiveness to price change .

Planted acreage with this crop is predicted for the period 2007 – 2012 through the prediction of the values of all independent variables in the supply response function with the assumption of stability of all factors in 2015.

Acreage planted with paddy in 2006 is expected to increase 3.96% in 2015 .