Time series analysis of Baghdad rainfall using ARIMA method
Other Title(s)
تحليل السلاسل الزمنية لأمطار بغداد باستخدام تقنية ARIMA
Author
Source
Issue
Vol. 54, Issue 4 (sup) (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1136-1142, 7 p.
Publisher
University of Baghdad College of Science
Publication Date
2013-12-31
Country of Publication
Iraq
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Topics
Abstract AR
استخدمت البيانات الشهرية للأمطار في محطة بغداد للأنواء الجوية لدراسة السلوكية الزمنية لها حيث تم ملاحظة تذبذبات واضحة فيها مع وجود نمط تزايدي طفيف جدا إضافة إلى الدورية الواضحة فيها.
تم اختيار نماذج متعددة لل ARIMA و إخضاع النموذج الأفضل لاختبار الوائمة.
لوحظ أن أفضل نموذج كان ذا المعالم (0, 1 ,1) x (2, 1, 3) SARIMA إذ يعكس بواقي هذا النموذج خصائص سلسلة الضجة البيضاء.
تم استخدام هذا النموذج للتنبؤ بقيم الأمطار لفترة أربعة سنوات قادمة بعد التحقق من موائمته لتمثيل المعلومات الأصلية.
Abstract EN
Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series.
Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed.
Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy.
It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed.
According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Ali, Sawsan Majid. 2013. Time series analysis of Baghdad rainfall using ARIMA method. Iraqi Journal of Science،Vol. 54, no. 4 (sup), pp.1136-1142.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-352368
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Ali, Sawsan Majid. Time series analysis of Baghdad rainfall using ARIMA method. Iraqi Journal of Science Vol. 54, no. 4 (Supplement) (2013), pp.1136-1142.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-352368
American Medical Association (AMA)
Ali, Sawsan Majid. Time series analysis of Baghdad rainfall using ARIMA method. Iraqi Journal of Science. 2013. Vol. 54, no. 4 (sup), pp.1136-1142.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-352368
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 1142
Record ID
BIM-352368
