المديونية الخارجية للاقتصاد الأردني : مسارها و العوامل المحددة لها في الفترة 2000-2010

الملخص EN

Jordanian economy is characterized by scarcity of financial resources.

This enforced policy makers to borrow from abroad in order to carry on social and economics plans, which resulted in increasing both the level and burden of external debt.

Analyzing the external debt for Jordanian economy is important because it influences, negatively, the future development programs.

The main aims of the study are 1) identifying the behavior of Jordan’s external debt up to 2010.

2) Determining the period that Jordan economy needs to attain self-sustained growth status.

To accomplish these purposes, a model was specified; the model incorporated the impact of three factors on external debt, these factors include savings , GNP-targeted growth rate, and efficiency of capital use.

The results show 1) high level of Jordan’s external debt burden, which yield absorbing of foreign currency created from exports.

Furthermore, this burden will enlarge in the future due to high level of external debt on one hand, and due to current stagnation economic status.

2).

Jordan external debt characterized by increasing status with increasing rates.

This due to the fact that required investment exceeds saving.

The study also revealed that the rate of debt increases as GNP growth increases propensity to save decreases, and efficiency of capital use decreases.

3).

Jordan needs for external finance remains as long as saving is less than investment.

To alleviate debt problem in the future, the study recommends appropriate macroeconomic policy ; this policy ought to concern with 1) Raising propensity to save from all sectors : government, household, and business.

2)Improving capital use.

3) Controlling imported - luxury consumption.

4)Allocating new loans toward productive projects that create exports.