أثر المخزون الاستراتيجي للقمح على تأمين الاستهلاك من القمح : خلال الفترة من (2001 م-2012 م)‎ دراسة قياسية

Abstract EN

The study examined the impact of strategic reserves of wheat in Sudan on securing food; whereas wheat has been selected since it represents the most important commodity for food security during the period (2001-2012).

The problem of the study stemmed from the continuing disparity between the rate of growth of both the agricultural production and the demand for agricultural food commodities, which led to a food gap in most of the goods; whereas in terms of grain commodities with a higher relative gap wheat came at the forefront; in addition to the continuous decline in the rate of self-sufficiency and the steady increase in the number of the population during the years of the study.

The study aimed at reaching an econometric model that shows the most important factors that affect the study variable “strategic reserves of wheat commodity”, besides arriving at acceptable statistical, economical, and econometric estimates to assure the significance of the model and its ability in prediction.

The study adopted the descriptive analytical and the econometric methods.

The study most important results indicated that the most important variables that affect the strategic reserves of wheat include the following: population, the imported quantity, quantity demanded and supplied.

The study calls for more attention to be given to the strategic reserves of wheat as it represents a safety value and it protects the country from the threat of drought and famine.

Furthermore, more attention should be given to the timing of planting the modified seeds as specified by the agricultural research corporation; besides increasing the cultivated area of wheat.