استخدام نموذج فضاء الحالة State Space في التنبؤ بإنتاج القمح في سورية

الملخص EN

The cultivation of wheat crops in Syria is strategic.

This is due to its substantial role in achieving self-sufficiency and food security, which is closely linked to national security .It is also the most important cultivated crop in Syria because it is ranked first in terms of cultivated area.The increase of its production has always contributed of inhabitants which makes the government free from the burdens of importation.

By having a review on the factors that affect the volume of production of wheat as area and the methods of agriculture, irrigation, climate and pests....

,we consider to be set randomly, this makes the production of wheat a random process, too.

And thus can be modeled by Econometrics models for prediction.....

This study aims at develop the model to predict the production of wheat in Syria which is based on the model State Space.

The study to develop a model and predict the production of wheat in the Syrian Arab Republic until 2016.

As it turns out to compare the model State Space with the models used in the analysis of time series priority model State Space for modeling wheat production in Syria.

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