دور السيناريو في ترقب الأزمات المالية : أزمة الرهن العقاري نموذجا-خلال الفترة (1990-2010)‎

Abstract EN

The study problem stemmed from the fact that despite repetitive financial crises that seem to accompany the long history of the capitalist system, the concerned authorities had not been able to prevent their occurrence.

The study aimed at clarifying the role of different scenarios as a technique for predicting the mortgage crisis that started in USA in 2007-2008.

In this framework, the descriptive analytical methodology was used to grasp the roots of the crisis, identify the nature of the scenarios, as well as highlighting their role in the prediction of this crisis.

The most important findings of the study indicated that the warning parameters causing the mortgage crisis encompasses changes in interest rates and property prices; whereas the importance of scenarios techniques emerged in terms of good anticipation of the crisis.

Finally, this study recommended the need to focus on and to develop what is known as the worst scenario for any change that can occur in economic indicators (especially the interest rates).