تحليل الصدمات الهيكلية لنموذج الطلب الكلي باستخدام متجه الانحدار الذاتي الهيكلي (SVAR)‎ : العراق حالة تطبيقية (1970-2010)‎

Abstract EN

This study sought to analyze the dynamic behavior of the non-oil GDP in Iraq for the period (1970-2010), through the components of the total demand for spending of government and private, consumption& investment and non-oil exports, (impulse response function) &(variance decompositions) reached that the important variables affecting the non-oil GDP is the variable itself and the government consumer spending, after estimating the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR), which was estimated based on the (VEC model), where the study concluded, that there is cointegration between the study variables.

By using Johansen test , which has been applied after making sure that all the variables of the study integrated from first order I(1), depending on the Unit root tests (PP, ZA, ADF), Also reached the (LR test ) to, study data is free from the structural changes , hence been estimated model (VEC) without dummy variables that represent economic blockade and war.