تقدير نموذج تصحيح الخطأ (EVCM)‎ للعلاقة بين أدوات السياستين النقدية و المالية و بين النشاط الاقتصادي الجزائري خلال الفترة 1990-2015

Abstract EN

the results of this study showed us that the error correction coefficient value is )46..1-(, this means that gdp is moderating to its equilibrium value in each remaining period of imbalance from the previous period (t-1) about (4..61%), in other words, when domestic output deviates in the short term in period (t-1) for its equilibrium value because of shock in it or in a component of the model (cash mass, revenue and overhead) it corrects approximately 166% from this imbalance in period (t), on the other hand, this correction ratio reflected on the speed of adjustment towards balance, meaning that the gdp takes about 0.60 years (1/1.66) (six months to return to their initial value), after the impact of any shock in the system, which means the great impact of economic activity and unprogrammed economic policies, this indicates the weak immunity of the algerian economy in resisting the shocks of monetary and financial policy, where if the negative shock is in one component of the model and lasted more than six months will enter the economy in a real crisis