دراسة تحليلية و استشرافية لانتاج الحبوب في الجزائر للفترة (1970-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to monitor and analyze the current state of domestic cereal production, as well as to formulate of an econometric model for grain production and provide future projections for 2020 using the Box-Jenkins methodology.

The results of the study indicate that domestic cereal production is still limited to meet growing domestic demand, and that this production will not exceed at best the 6.33 million tons limit in the 2020 prospects, compared to needs of more than 8 million tons, if production continues at the same pace as Follow them now.

Hence, it is possible to imagine the food problem that will occur, and the consequent economic and political burdens, especially if accompanied by the scarcity of foreign exchange necessary for import, as oil prices are currently known as a sharp decline and instability.

Therefore, the study recommended that the state seek to rehabilitate the agricultural sector within the economic policy, and give priority to improving and intensifying the production of grain, as it is the right way to avoid the risks of food dependency abroad.