أثر إيرادات النفط الخام في تحديد طبيعة العجز المزدوج في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (1990-2015)‎

Abstract EN

Impact of crude oil revenues in determining the nature of double deficit in the Iraqi economy: 1990 – 2015Dr.

Raja Abdullah E.

Al Salim Jaber Jasim M.

Al JaberCollage of Administration and EconomicsUniversity of Basrah The study aims to analyze and measure the impact of crude oil revenues in determining the nature of the double deficit in the Iraqi economy and to test the hypothesis of double deficit in the oil countries, which sees a double causal relationship between the deficit in the general budget and the balance of payments deficit, The new standard methods used in time series analysis, unit root tests, and the methodology of co-integration in the Johansson - Gislius method were first used to estimate the integration of the dynamic micro-squares second, as well as the Kranger tests to determine the direction of the relationship Causality between the two variables, with the results confirmed the existence of a bilateral causal relationship between the two variables, and therefore, the study proved that the validity of the hypothesis by the study, namely that the oil revenues played a major role in determining the nature of the relationship between the budget deficit and the deficit in the balance of payments.

Twin deficits, joint integration, the least-squares dynamic: Keywords