نمذجة معدلات التضخم بالجزائر باستخدام النماذج ذات العتبة خلال الفترة 1990- 2019

Abstract EN

This study aims to model inflation rates in Algeria by adopting nonlinear modeling using Smooth Transition Autoregressive models; during period 1990 - 2019.

The results yielded the existence of the threshold effects in the Algerian inflation (nonlinear behavior); as the logistic smooth transition autoregressive was the best in determining the inflation threshold; and that there is asymmetry in the adjustment process when the latter moves away from its equilibrium values; where decision makers in central banks intervene to control the rate of inflation when the latter exceeds the threshold of 6.

247% and the transition from one regime to another is at a speed of 4.

813; which indicates that this adjustment is fast; through a strict monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation rates whenever the latter exceeds the estimated threshold