The impact of macroeconomic variables on financial market performance in Egypt : an empirical analysis for the period (1980-2018)‎

Abstract EN

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the financial market performance has been a hot topic for decades.

Thus, this study focused on investigating the effect of oil price on the financial market performance and used a Vector Error Correction Model estimation technique on Egypt data from 1980 to 2018.

the results revealed the long-run causality between the independent variables towards the dependent variable.

Still, in the short-run, only Inflation and interest rates have causality effects on financial market performance.

Also, the exchange rate and oil price do not have causality running to financial market performance.

The results also emphasized that the short-run and long-run causality effects should be considered guidelines for policymakers to avoid misleading macroeconomic strategies in future strategic planning.

The speed of adjustment reported from estimating the VECM is (-9.5%).

Also, the model was found stable from using both the CUSUM and CUSUMQ statistics