دراسة اقتصادية قياسية لأهم محددات الفجوة الغذائية للحبوب في الجزائر للفترة (1971-2018)‎

Abstract EN

The aim of this study is to estimate the most important determinants affecting the size of the cereal food gap in Algeria using the ARDL model for the period (1971-2018).

The results indicate the important effects on the short and long term, as it was found in the long term that an increase in both of GDP per capita and the urban population by 10 % will be followed by an increase in the food gap for cereals by 10.74 % and 13.13 %, respectively, while increasing both the productivity and the area of grain-producing land by 10% will lead to a contraction of the food gap by 3.86 % and 4.06 %, respectively.

As for the short term, it turns out that an increase in the GDP per capita of 10 % will lead to a widening of the grain gap by 10.58 %, while an increase in the area of productive land by 10 % will be followed by a decrease in the gap by 3.56 %, It was also evident in the short term the absence of statistical significance of the effect of urban population and productivity on the cereal food gap.

In this context, we recommend that more effort is required to reduce the disparity between rural and city, and use of advanced agricultural technology, and give top priority to expanding the cultivated land for grain crops, and to adjust the consumption pattern .