أثر السياسات النقدية و سياسات الميزانية على معدلات التضخم في ظل تقلبات أسعار البترول : دراسة حالة الجزائر خلال الفترة (1990-2016)‎

Abstract EN

The aim of this study was to measure the impact of monetary policies and budget policies on inflation rates in Algeria under the fluctuations in oil prices, using annual data for the period 1995-2016.

Based on the Vector Auto-Regression model (VAR) Both government spending and the Balance of the general budget of the State were used to reflect changes in budget policies, changes in both interest rates and money supply were used to reflect monetary policy, and changes in oil prices reflect the impact of the hydrocarbons sector.

The study concluded that there is a statistically significant correlation between the balance of the general budget of the state and the government expenditure with inflation rates, while the increase in interest rates has a negative impact on inflation rates, That is to say, raising interest rates Could contribute to reducing inflation.

On the other hand, the rest of the variables, including oil prices and money supply, did not have that great effect in determining the rate of inflation compared to the variables of the budget policies and the interest rate.