دراسة السببية بين الناتج المحلي الخام العالمي و أسعار النفط (1992-2018)‎

Abstract EN

In this paper, the causal relationship between global GDPW and oil prices expressed in OPEC reference crude prices (ORB) and Brent crude prices was studied in this paper, with the aim of finding out the direction of the causal relationship between the variable (GDPW) and each of (ORB) and (Brent), and any of the previous variables affect, are affected by, or cause the other.

According to the requirements of the standard study, the unit root test was used where we found that the series variable (GDPW) is stable at the level, while the series of variables (ORB) and (Brent) are stable at the first difference, and the degree of slowdown periods that we found at 1 (p =1), and by conducting a causal test, it was concluded that the growth rate of the world gross domestic product (GDPW) is what affects and causes the determination of high or low price levels for crude oil in this direction only.