التنبؤ بالطلب السياحي الأجنبي في الجزائر باستعمال منهجية بوكس-جنكيز

Abstract EN

This study aims to forecasting foreign tourist demand in Algeria by using the Box-Jenkins methodology, and apply it to the time series of the number of foreign tourists arrivals to Algeria during the period 2013-2018.

It concluded that the time series of the type (DS) was stable at the first difference, and Autoregressive Integrated-Moving Average model was suggested from the form (ARIMA (12, 1, 12)) with a reasonable accuracy (MAPE=20, 07%), we obtained the monthly and yearly forecast of foreign tourist demand, which was increasing, it could reach 2, 34 and 2, 65 million foreign tourists in 2019 and 2020 respectively, but with a declining growth rate (0, 16 and 0, 13).