نمذجة اختلال سعر الصرف الحقيقي للدينار الجزائري

Abstract EN

The purpose of the study is to modeling the misalignment of the real exchange rate of the Algerian dinar over the period 1980-2018 .for that we will estimate the real Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate that allows achieving internal and external equilibrieum by using ARDl methode , and then we calculate the misalignment between its and the current real exchange rate and specifying periods of under-evaluation and over-evaluation in the value of the currency.Finally we estimate the long-run misalignment of real exchange rate in terms of its short-run volatility and the deviation of the fondamental variables from its equilibrium value .Our results show that the long –term of real exchange rate mesalignment depends on short-term volatility , misalignment of previous period and the deviation of productivity differences from their long-term value.