قياس الاستدامة المالية في العراق للمدة (2003-2017)‎ باستخدام نموذج VRA

Abstract EN

The research aims to assess the financial sustainability of Iraq and the ability of the economic authorities to achieve it during the period 2003-2017 using the VRA model.

The results indicate that the standard model, based on the Johansen and Juselius test to a relationship the long-term relationship between public revenues and public expenditures.

While the results of the selection of causality showed a causal relationship in one direction is that public revenues cause public spending and therefore the government can adjust its public spending based on the size of public revenues.

Therefore, the government should adopt an economic policy aimed at achieving financial sustainability by reducing the budget deficit, reducing or stabilizing the size of the public debt (internal and external).

And reorganizing existing revenues through the development of different productive sectors in order to create new and real tax containers, able of financing the government tunnels on one hand, and not affected by changes in oil prices on the other hand.