استشراف دينامية السكان المحليين في الجزائر آفاق 2038

Abstract EN

Population dynamic are intended to describe changes in the population from births, deaths and migration.

In this context, this article aims to examine the main components of the demographic dynamics in Algeria, life expectancy at birth (e0) and the total fertility rate (TFR) in horizon 2038, using local projection tools from the US Census Bureau.

The results revealed a continuous increase in (e0) that will reach 82 years for women versus 81 years for men, and a drop in the TFR that will arrive to two children per woman according to the average hypothesis, one also, one expects geographical disparities in favor of the North compared to the South of the country.

This situation, constituted a factor of discontent and riots of the population, may be avoided by integrated programs in the socio-economic and health fields.