Decomposition of China’s Carbon Emissions Intensity from 1995 to 2010: An Extended Kaya Identity

Abstract EN

This paper employs an extended Kaya identity as the scheme and utilizes the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI II) as the decomposition technique based on analyzing CO2 emissions trends in China.

Change in CO2 emissions intensity is decomposed from 1995 to 2010 and includes measures of the effect of Industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, and carbon emission factors.

Results illustrate that changes in energy intensity act to decrease carbon emissions intensity significantly and changes in industrial structure and energy structure do not act to reduce carbon emissions intensity effectively.

Policy will need to significantly optimize energy structure and adjust industrial structure if China’s emission reduction targets in 2020 are to be reached.

This requires a change in China’s economic development path and energy consumption path for optimal outcomes.