أثر تغيرات أسعار البترول على البطالة في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 1970-2017

Abstract EN

The motive of the study is to search the nature of the impact of oil price fluctuations on unemployment in Algeria.

Using statistical and econometric methods through the application of the modern time series analysis methodology based on the use of the VAR models during the period 1970-2017 to determine the causal direction between oil price fluctuations and the main variables of the labor market in Algeria (unemployment).

The results of the econometric study conclude that there is a causal relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate in Algeria.

While the analysis of the response functions showed that the relationship between the Oil prices and employment is a reverse relationship, as positive shocks in oil prices have negative effects on unemployment rates in the short and long term.

The Analysis of disassociation of variance revealed the relative importance of price shocks in explaining the fluctuations in unemployment rates in the Algerian economy.

Which necessitates diversifying sources of income in order to limit the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on its revenues and thus its operational policy to reduce the phenomenon of unemployment?