Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data

Author

Kim, Minyoung

Source

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Issue

Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-8, 8 p.

Publisher

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Publication Date

2015-10-05

Country of Publication

Egypt

No. of Pages

8

Main Subjects

Civil Engineering

Abstract EN

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a simple but powerful model in financial engineering to represent time-series with long-range statistical dependency.

However, the traditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimator aims to minimize a loss function that is inherently symmetric due to Gaussianity.

The consequence is that when the data of interest are asset returns, and the main goal is to maximize profit by accurate forecasting, the ML objective may be less appropriate potentially leading to a suboptimal solution.

Rather, it is more reasonable to adopt an asymmetric loss where the model's prediction, as long as it is in the same direction as the true return, is penalized less than the prediction in the opposite direction.

We propose a quite sensible asymmetric cost-sensitive loss function and incorporate it into the ARMA model estimation.

On the online portfolio selection problem with real stock return data, we demonstrate that the investment strategy based on predictions by the proposed estimator can be significantly more profitable than the traditional ML estimator.

American Psychological Association (APA)

Kim, Minyoung. 2015. Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1073272

Modern Language Association (MLA)

Kim, Minyoung. Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1073272

American Medical Association (AMA)

Kim, Minyoung. Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1073272

Data Type

Journal Articles

Language

English

Notes

Includes bibliographical references

Record ID

BIM-1073272