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Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz’s 05 Chaotic Model
Joint Authors
Bednář, Hynek
Raidl, Aleš
Mikšovský, Jiří
Source
Issue
Vol. 2015, Issue 2015 (31 Dec. 2015), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2015-08-04
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Medicine
Information Technology and Computer Science
Abstract EN
Initial errors in weather prediction grow in time and, as they become larger, their growth slows down and then stops at an asymptotic value.
Time of reaching this saturation point represents the limit of predictability.
This paper studies the asymptotic values and time limits in a chaotic atmospheric model for five initial errors, using ensemble prediction method (model’s data) as well as error approximation by quadratic and logarithmic hypothesis and their modifications.
We show that modified hypotheses approximate the model’s time limits better, but not without serious disadvantages.
We demonstrate how hypotheses can be further improved to achieve better match of time limits with the model.
We also show that quadratic hypothesis approximates the model’s asymptotic value best and that, after improvement, it also approximates the model’s time limits better for almost all initial errors and time lengths.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Bednář, Hynek& Raidl, Aleš& Mikšovský, Jiří. 2015. Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz’s 05 Chaotic Model. The Scientific World Journal،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1079063
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Bednář, Hynek…[et al.]. Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz’s 05 Chaotic Model. The Scientific World Journal No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1079063
American Medical Association (AMA)
Bednář, Hynek& Raidl, Aleš& Mikšovský, Jiří. Time Evolution of Initial Errors in Lorenz’s 05 Chaotic Model. The Scientific World Journal. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1079063
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1079063