التنبؤ بإنتاج محصول الحنطة في العراق باستخدام أنموذج Box-Jenkins للمدة (2020-2024)‎

Abstract EN

Wheat is a major crop of food grown in different parts of Iraq, whether irrigated in the middle or south or demilitarized in northern Iraq, which is grown in large quantities but does not meet the actual need for local consumption, and as a strategic commodity, this research aims to make a forecast of wheat production for the next five years 2020-2024, by using time series based on the Box-Jenkins model.

This is one of the models that depend on the accuracy of diagnosis of the phenomenon studied by relying on time series data for the study period 1980 - 2018, where a set of results were obtained through the use of statistical analysis program Minitab17 that may help those interested in the future vision of the Iraqi economy in drawing A successful planning policy, the results showed that the best model for forecasting wheat production in Iraq is ARIMA (1.0.2).