آثار صدمات أسعار النفط على الأداء الاقتصادي الكلي لاقتصادات منظمة الأوبيك : دراسة قياسية باستخدام نماذج Pvar و نماذج Pvecm

Abstract EN

This research aims to analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of OPEC economies during the period 1990-2018, using Panel VAR models and Panel VECM models, as well as to analyze the short- and long-term equilibrium relationships between oil price volatility and OPEC's macroeconomic performance indicators.

The estimation results of the PVAR models showed that oil price volatility do not affect real variables in the short term, such as real economic growth and real exchange rates; Whereas, its effect is limited only to the money supply.

The estimation results of the PVECM models showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil price volatility and foreign direct investment; On the other hand, the results showed a short-term causal relationship with statistical significance to the effect of oil price shocks on both Gross capital formation and imports.