أسلوب ARRSES للتنبؤ بالكميات المجهزة من منظومات الري الزراعية الحديثة

Abstract EN

There is an urgent need for accurate, reliable and administratively reliable forecastingsystems.

Prediction is one of the main keys to decision-making management becausefuture events carry a great deal of uncertainty.

Today, methods, methods and models forprediction have varied based on the availability of data.

Whether or not, the nature of thatdata, the type of prediction required, and the amount of expected accuracy.

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etc.

Studies and research that address the subject of forecasting in the agricultural sector aredistinguished by their scarcity and simplicity, which are traditional estimates that lack thebasis and the solid scientific basis in building them, and the aim of this research is topredict the numbers that will be prepared by the General Company for AgriculturalSupplies from modern agricultural irrigation systems in Iraq in 2019 by using thestatistical method called ARRSES.

The most important characteristic of the ARRSESmethod is that it gives the most recent observations (values), giving it more weight(weighting) than previous observations because the newest observations carry morerealistic information about the situation under study, and this method can change the valueof α (a constant whose value is between zero and one) in a sequential manner wheneverthe need arises (i.

e.

whenever the α value appears to be inconsistent with the nature of theavailable data).