Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model
Joint Authors
Chen, Hong
Wu, Yao
Wan, Qian
Lu, Jian
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-09-28
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials.
The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics.
Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections.
The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) model were developed and compared.
The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators.
It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency.
Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model.
The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate.
The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model.
The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wu, Yao& Lu, Jian& Chen, Hong& Wan, Qian. 2016. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103358
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wu, Yao…[et al.]. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103358
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wu, Yao& Lu, Jian& Chen, Hong& Wan, Qian. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103358
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1103358