تحليل و قياس أثر العوامل التي تحدد سعر الصرف في العراق

Abstract EN

In the context of searching for the factors determining the exchange rate in Iraq, the research endeavors to simulate objective factors related to the demand and supply sides and external theoretical factors that determine the sources of demand in light of the changes that have occurred in the Iraqi economy, especially with regard to commercial openness and monetary reform and the settlement of obligations incurred by Iraq with international institutions.

Sources of supply have become more diversified after the economic openness in the post-2003 era, when restrictions on the flow of foreign capital and goods were removed.

This study turned towards showing the contribution of the external sector, quantitative easing and the effects of domestic product (as an indication of economic performance) on changes in the value of the local currency vis-à-vis the dollar.

It has come to the conclusion that the exchange rate has come under the influence of a group of economic factors, and the study has concluded that the most important variables that can Considering it to have a clear and direct impact on exchange rate changes is the size of the exporting currency, the net surplus or deficit in the public budget, the rate of growth measured by the local product and the degree of economic openness in Iraq, and it was found through the standard study that these factors have a high explanatory power exceeding 90% of Changes in the exchange rate in Iraq.