تأثير التغيرات الإقتصادية في مصر علي التجارة الخارجية

Abstract EN

The foreign trade sector plays an important role in the economic development process especially in the developing countries.

The development of Egyptian foreign trade is closely related to economic events and changes.

It helps to achieve local market balances and increase national income in the event of a high rate of exports and reduction of imports.

The problem of the study is that there are many problems facing foreign trade.

In recent years, there have been many economic changes at the local level.

These variables have had some effects on foreign trade and the trade balance.

The study aims to identify the most important economic variables that affect foreign trade and identify the most important effects of economic changes on Egyptian exports and imports and ways of dealing with them, which can contribute in guiding trade policy to increase exports and reduce imports to reduce trade deficit.

The research indicated that the total Egyptian exports to the world countries increased by LE 15, 232.18 million and achieved the largest value of Egypt's total exports to the group of Western European countries, reaching about 3853.6 million pounds annually.

The research found that the value of total exported exports to the world countries, Which reached about 57.1% in 2000 and improved in 2009, which reached about 0.2% .

The research found that the total value of total imports to Egypt from the world countries was not stable, as it reached about 70% in 2000 and this coefficient improved in 2011 by about 2.3% The research referred to the statistical estimation of some of the multiple regression models (Forward, Stepwise, Forward), where it was proved that the economic variables that have a positive effect on the total Egyptian exports are the exchange rate in various equations for the various regression models.

The increase in the exchange rate helps to increase the total Egyptian exports as well as the export support variable and the total investment variable.

Where the equations of multiple regression models showed in various ways that the increase in export support and total investment help increase the total Egyptian exports.

The research also proved that the economic variables that have a positive effect on the total Egyptian imports are the national consumption, The increase in national consumption helps to increase the total Egyptian imports as well as the variable population and the variable foreign exchange reserves.

The equations of multiple regression models have shown in various ways that increasing national consumption and foreign exchange reserves help increase the total Egyptian imports.