أثر الصادرات و إجمالي الناتج المحلي على احتياطي الصرف الأجنبي في الجزائر : دليل تجريبي باستخدام المقاطع الهيكلية و التكامل المشترك مع تحول النظام

Abstract EN

This article aims to empirically analyze the effect of exports and GDP on foreign exchange reserves in Algeria over the period 1960-2019.

The unit roots tests with structural breaks confirm that all selected variables are integrated of order one with presence of structural break, therefore Gregory-Hansen test (1996) will be used to test the cointegration relationship between them.

The findings confirm that there is cointegration between GDP, exports and foreign exchange reserves with Regime Shift in 2009 due to the global financial crisis of 2008.

Hence, ignoring the structural break in the empirical study explains the ence of long-run relationship of long-run relationship using Johansen test.