Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda
Joint Authors
Namahoro, Jean Pierre
Mugabushaka, Adrien
Source
Journal of Environmental and Public Health
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-08-19
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Introduction.
Preferably maternal mortalities are predominant in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
In some African countries, including Rwanda, programs related to health-care delivery to reduce significantly severe complications including mortalities are established.
Unfortunately, historical and forecasted maternal mortality reduction and the influence of gross national income (GNI) were not accessed.
This study is aimed to forecast the three years of maternal mortalities (MMs) based on the influence of gross national income (GNI) in Rwanda.
Methods.
The period involved is from January 2009 to April 2018.
Data analyzed were obtained from the Central Hospital of the University of Kigali (CHUK) and mined data from the WHO database.
Time series approach (Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing) and linear regression models were applied.
Besides, IBM-SPSS and Eviews were used in the analysis.
Results.
The results revealed that MMs were not statistically different in several years, and there was a significant correlation between MMs and GNI (-0.610, P value 0.012 < 0.05).
A double exponential smoothing model (DESM) was fitted for the best forecast and ARIMA (0,1,0) and linear regression models for a quick forecast.
Conclusion.
There was a slight effect of GNI in maternal mortality reduction, which leads to the steady decrease of the forecasted maternal mortality up to May 2021.
The Government of Rwanda should intensively strengthen the health-care system, save the children programs, and support pregnant women by using GNI for reducing MMs at an advanced level.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Namahoro, Jean Pierre& Mugabushaka, Adrien. 2020. Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda. Journal of Environmental and Public Health،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1184415
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Namahoro, Jean Pierre& Mugabushaka, Adrien. Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda. Journal of Environmental and Public Health No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1184415
American Medical Association (AMA)
Namahoro, Jean Pierre& Mugabushaka, Adrien. Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda. Journal of Environmental and Public Health. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1184415
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1184415