Ship Accident Prediction Based on Improved Quantum-Behaved PSO-LSSVM

Abstract EN

Water transportation plays an important role in the comprehensive transportation system and regional logistics.

The number of vessel accidents is an important indicator for evaluating vessel traffic safety and the efficiency of the maritime management strategy.

The aim of this work is to provide an efficient way to predict the number of vessel accidents in China.

Firstly, to weaken the randomness of the vessel accident number time series, the gray processing operation is adopted to generate a new sequence with exponential and approximate exponential rules.

In addition, an extended least-squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model is applied in the forecasting of the new sequence, in which the parameters of the LSSVM are optimized by an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm (IQPSO).

The proposed method is applied in the forecasting of the number of vessel accidents in China, and the efficiency is shown by comparing the prediction results with GM (1, 1), PSO-LSSVM, and QPSO-LSSVM.