أثر الإيرادات النفطية و بعض المتغيرات على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق المدة (2004-2016)‎

Abstract EN

The standard estimate was analyzed between the dependent variable (GDP) and the set of independent variables (total government expenditure, exports, inflation rate, oil revenue and oil prices).

The results of the standard estimate were shown in line with economic logic.

5% and the estimation of the positive relationship with the GDP, as the increase in government spending overall led to an increase in the value of the parameter value estimated, in a related context showed the results proved the significance of exports at the level of 1% and also have a direct relationship with the variable above, The inflation rate was associated with a negative relationship with the dependent variable at a significant level of 10% , which is completely identical to the economic theory data, as well as the proof of oil revenues at the level of 1% , as it showed compatibility with the economic theory through the positive relationship with this GDP, on the one hand, On the other hand, the oil price variable was associated with a negative relationship with the gross domestic product, which contradicts the logic of the economic theory.

This is because the rise in the price of the barrel led to higher revenues.

However, these revenues were not allocated to the investment and production aspects, which led to the direction of the parameter's behavior to a different direction of the economic theory.

As for the coefficient of selection, it showed its explanatory power as it was able to explain about 99.5% of the changes in the dependent variable, and the remainder is due to variables not included in the model, The results of the standard analysis as a whole proved consistent with the hypothesis of the research through the correlation between the oil revenues and the gross domestic product (GDP), with the significance of the estimated model as a whole at a significant level of 1% .