تحليل الوضع الراهن و التوقعات المستقبلية لاقتصاديات إنتاج الطماطم في مصر

Abstract EN

The research aimed to identify the current situation and prospects of the tomato crop production in Egypt during the period (2000-2014), and the results of the research showed: (1) that the changes in the local production of tomatoes in Egypt due to the changes associated with each of the Cultivated Area and productivity and the long-term impact of productivity is larger than the impact’s Cultivated Area.

(2) Technological development resulting from the outcome of the applications programs and projects implemented in the sector of agriculture, especially the tomato crop during the study period led to an increase in production, the equivalent of about 276.74 thousand tons (resulting from increased productivity only), from tomato crop.

(3) The Kudhy model is the best models of the late distribution of the independent variables, followed by Nerlove model variables Which indicated that the the value of coefficient of elasticity in response tomato’s supply in short and long term about 2.98 , 3.01 respectively, and this show that the increasein farm price by 10% leads to increased Cultivated Area by 29.80% , 30.10% hn the same order as annual response coefficient, as well as the time necessary to achieve full response towards 0.994 , 1.01 years in the order from the following year.

(4) The Model Holt’s two parameter model is the best Exponential forecasting models used and the Cultivated Area of tomatoes will increase in 2020 (the predictive value) so that it will reach 190.43 thousand feddans, while amounted to 169.85 thousand feddans in 2014 (actual value) with change rate about 0.79%, but the local production of tomatoes will increase in 2020 to nearly 3.29 million tons at a rate of 19.33% than it was in 2014 of about 2.75 million tons, so it is expected to increase the productivity of tomatoes to 17.50 tons/fed in 2020 the rate of change in the amount of 7.89% from what it was in 2014 of about 16.22%.

it was observed an increase in the farming price of tomatoes in the coming years so as to increase the farming price of tomatoes is expected to be nearly 1607.36 pounds /tons in 2020 while the farming price of tomatoes in 2014 about 1313.00 pounds/tons, an increase of about 22.42%.

(5) It has been found that there is a negative impact of agricultural policy on both income and production and net revenue during the first study (2006-2000) second (2014-2007), while others have had a positive impact on the labor component, as it showed that the local price of one tonne of tomato is less than the world price and the tomato producer bear the implicit taxes of about 3% worth about a 227.61 pound/feddans during the period of the first study, and about 50% are estimated at about 1687.33 pounds/feddans during the second study, The cost’s input at local price was less than its counterpart at the border , so this suggests that there is support to the elements of production supplies by 8% , 7% to the value of the support reached about 102.16 pounds/fed, 116.62 pounds/fed during the study periods, respectively.

It also shows that the value of the coefficient of comparative advantage (the cost of domestic resources) reached about will reach 250, which is less than the one which means enjoy tomato crop in Egypt has a comparative advantage in the production and local resources to provide unit will reach 250 foreign exchange unit during the first period, while worth about 0.07 during the second period and therefore it is necessary 0.07 local resources unit to provide foreign exchange unit.

This feature can be of benefit in increasing the exports of tomato crop to foreign markets.

(6) Absence of the impact of the agricultural policy which practice on each of the farming price and net revenues of tomato crop during the periods of study.

It was found that production costs increased during the second period of the average of the first period of about 47.40%, this increase is estimated at an absolute value of about 1390.67 pounds/fed.

The study recommends that in the light of the results obtained including the following: (1) the need to expand the cultivation of tomato crop horizontal or vertical expansion, this requires an increase in the average productivity meanwhile to approximately about 17.50 tons in 2020 and increasing the Cultivated Area to approximately around 190.43 thousand feddan in 2020 and the adoption of good cultivation of new varieties with higher productivity and resistance to diseases and insect pests.

(2) The promotion of contract farming system between farmers marketing bodies on the basis of a specific price to ensure the marketing of their production of tomatoes.

(3) The need for attention to the value-added of the tomato crop, even more than the local price of the world price, which increases the amount of exports and at the same time reduces the value of the implicit taxes borne by the producers of tomato.

(4) The application of technological changes and developments efficiently using modern methods of production and harvesting tomatoes, which reduces the proportion of crop loss in productivity meanwhile.