دراسة اقتصادية لكفاءة و محددات الاستثمار الزراعي في مصر

Abstract EN

Despite the fact that the Egyptian agricultural sector has many elements and potentials that drive the development of the movement and encourage investment in this sector - there is a clear shortage of total investments directed to this sector , amounting to about 4.16% of the total national investments, The problem of the study was the small volume of investments directed to the agricultural sector, which became disproportionate to the importance of this sector, while the objectives of the study were to identify the features of the national and agricultural investment policy as well as to evaluate the investment performance in the agricultural sector.

The most important results of the study were: The increase of GDP during the study period (2000- 2017) by a statistically significant annual at the level of 0.01 by 117.07 billion pounds, and that agricultural output also increased by a statistically significant at the level of 0.01 amounted to 18.75 billion pounds, and the increase in Agricultural output is greater than the increase in GDP, where the increase in agricultural GDP represented about 18% of the increase in GDP.

It is also clear that national investments are increasing statistically at the level of 0.01 amounted to about 22.2 billion pounds, while agricultural investments are also increasing by a statistically significant at the level of 0.01 amounted to 0.491 billion pounds.

The agricultural GDP represents about 15.1% of GDP - which indicates that investments directed to the agricultural sector are not in line with the contribution of the agricultural sector in the GDP, as it turned out that the national labor has taken a growing trend and statistically significant estimated at 0.752 million For about 3.13% of the average total employment, but for agricultural employment has increased by an annual statistically significant estimated at 0.07 million workers represent about 1.474% of the average agricultural labor volume during the same period.

This shows that the increase in employment in non-agricultural sectors is greater than the increase in agricultural employment, i.e., the agricultural sector has become a labor-intensive.

An evaluation of the performance of investment in the Egyptian economy showed that the national investment rate was about 0.188 on average for the study period., As for agricultural investment, it decreased from 0.149 in 2000 to 0.043 in 2017 and its minimum level was about 0.025 in 2011, and the maximum is 0.164 in 2001 - which indicates the efficiency of investment in this sector., The return on national investment is estimated at 5.31 on average during the study period, which reflects the efficiency of investment at the national level., As for agricultural investment, the return increased from 6.72 in 2000 to 22.99 in 2017, an increase of 92.1% from the average of 17.67 during the study period., The return on investment in the agricultural sector reached its lowest level in 2001, where it was estimated at 6.09, the maximum was about 40.64 in 2011, with a standard deviation of about 8.73 from the average during the study period., This may be due to the high cost of agricultural production and consequently lower yield, As for the capital intensification coefficient, it was estimated at 8.83 - this indicates that despite the steady increase in population, there is an increase in national investment, but more than the increase in the number of workers., As for the capital intensification coefficient in the agricultural sector, it reached a minimum of 0.95 in 2011 alone maximum 2.81 in 2015, an increase of 1.86 representing about 56.5% and a standard deviation of 0.57 from the average period of 1.77.,However, the capital intensification coefficient at the national level was estimated at an average of 8.8 while it was estimated at the agricultural sector 1.7, which indicates that investments directed to the agricultural sector are low relative to the number of workers absorbed by this sector., The multiplier of investment at the national level was estimated at about 3.69 during the study period, which indicates the efficiency of national investment., As for the agricultural sector, it was found that the multiplier fluctuated between increasing and decreasing, where the minimum level was estimated at 1.49 in 2015 alone, the maximum was about 324.33 in 2010, and a standard deviation of 491.14 from the average of 52.97 during the study period., This reflects the efficiency of investment in the agricultural sector during the study period, As for the endemic coefficient, it reached a minimum of 0.15 in 2011 and the maximum in 2001, with a standard deviation of about 0.21 from the mean of 0.40 and it was less than the correct one., This indicates a lack of investment in agriculture according to this criterion, With an estimate of the expected level of agricultural investment in the light of the predictive value of both the interest rate and the exchange rate, an increase in the target agricultural investment is expected from about 21.15 billion pounds in 2019 to about 63.24 billion pounds in 2022, with an annual average of about 23.14 billion pounds during the period (2019-2022).