تحليل السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ باعداد التلاميذ في الصف الأول الابتدائي باستعمال منهجية بوكس جينكينز : دراسة تطبيقية في محافظة البصرة

Abstract EN

The state must pay great attention and necessary care to the education system in Iraq, as the law guarantees the right to free education for every citizen, but the high population growth rate and various other factors lead to an increase in the number of students admitted to the first grade in a very rapid manner, so it must be confronted This reality is by setting annual plans by the concerned parties to face the expected obligations for each new year from schools, people, teachers, and all other educational requirements.

In order to achieve this, studies must be in place that enable us to know the numbers of students who will be accepted into the resignation, so this study aimed To develop its standard models to predict the numbers expected to pupils on coming first grade using the methodology of Box Jenkins (Box-Jenkins) and reconcile the best model of ARIMA) models, ARMA) The study concluded that a model can be used to predict the number of students, and their numbers were predicted for the next five years, and this constitutes a scientific basis for the development of education plans and related plans.