أثر تغيرات سعر الصرف على الميزان التجاري في الجزائري باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)‎ للفترة الممتدة من 1990-2019

Abstract EN

This study aims to find the long-term and short-term relationships between the trade balance, the real effective exchange rate, the inflation rate and the oil prices for the period 1990 to 2019 in Algeria, using the Bounds Testing Approach to test the joint complementarity, and the Error Correction Model.

Under the ARDL model, the boundary test results indicate a long-term equilibrium relationship between trade balance and study variables; The results showed that the real effective exchange rate and the rate of inflation are negatively related to the trade balance in the long and short term.

However, the price of oil positively affects the trade balance in the short term.

However, we do not find a long-term relationship between the trade balance and oil prices.

Our findings also indicate that the Marshal-Lerner trade balance condition does not hold up even in the short term.