تحرير التجارة الخارجية و التضخم لدول شمال أفريقيا : تحليل السببية لنموذج تصحيح الخطأ المتجه ( Panel Vecm)‎

Abstract EN

This research is intended to study the impact of the foreign trade liberalization policy on inflation in North African countries during the period from 1990 to 2019.

In order to answer this problem, a review of previous scientific studies related to the study of trade openness and inflation was dealt with, then a study was conducted, and after presenting the results of the study we find: The existence of a long-term relationship PANEL VECM based on the error correction model Granger Causality The causal relationship between inflation and the various indicators of foreign trade liberalization in North African countries, represented by the rate of inflation, Purchasing power parity price ratio The indicator of trade openness, the money supply, meaning that increasing inflation means a decrease in local purchasing power, and there is also a positive relationship in the long term between inflation and trade openness in North African countries, which negates the hypothesis (Romer 1993) that there is a negative link between inflation and trade openness in North African countries and this is what denies the commercial hypothesis, The money supply is also a major reason to boost prices in the long run.

However, there is no short-term relationship between purchasing power parity and the money supply, except for the variable of trade openness, which had a positive short-term relationship in North African countries.