قياس تأثير تقلبات أسعار النفط على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في مصر خلال المدة (1990-2016)‎

Abstract EN

Oil price fluctuations affect most of the variables of the national economy of all countries, and these effects are different according to the economic structure of each country, whether it is a country with a diversified economy or a economy with little diversity.

The importance of this study is highlighted because it relates to the march of development and economic growth in Egypt, because development plans are linked to oil revenues and oil is linked to production inputs, which affects production costs.

As Egypt possesses mineral wealth in addition to the fact that oil prices are among the most important energy prices, so it is certain that fluctuations in oil prices will leave many and varied effects in the Egyptian economy.

The research aims to study the effects of oil price fluctuations on the gross domestic product in Egypt using the (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model and its abbreviation (ARDL) during the period (1990-2016).

The results of the benchmark analysis showed a positive and long-term relationship between oil prices and GDP.

Whereas, if oil prices change by one unit, then the gross domestic product will change by (0.85) units.